You wont get me backing Bjorkman any more unless he is standing next to Max Mirnyi. His improbable run at Wimbledon aside, his singles form the past two seasons has been terrible. In saying that, he is a dog, so you are getting a decent price at least. Never, I repeat never, bet on him when he is a favourite in singles, he is no longer good enough to pull off the favourites roles. Alamagro surprised a few people by handling the carpet OK last week, but you wont get me laying near -200 about him when not on the dirt, and I cant bet Bjorkman when he is the only person on his side of the net.
Santoro and Benneteau is Tuesday and theres not a lotbetween them, so it does make sense to bet the dog. Theyre very close in rankings and theyre records on carpet are similar. Both players have had the odd decent result lately without doing anything spectacular, and I think the value move is playing whoever is the dog if you want to bet on that match.
One match where there looks to be a little value is the Ollie Rochus/Tipsarevic match. At the moment Tipsarevis is +166 at Pinny and might be worth something small there. He leads Ollie 2-1 head to head, and beat him 6-2,6-0 a little over 3 weeks ago in a challenger in France ( and ended up winning the tourny ). After that challenger he had a pretty good week in Moscow where he made the quarters and lost to safin in 3 sets. He has played two qualie matches already and will have a good idea of how the court is playing, and he could be a little value if youre looking at dogs.
No matches stand out to me tonight, hopefully there will be some value or easier matches to disect later in the tourny like last week.
Santoro and Benneteau is Tuesday and theres not a lotbetween them, so it does make sense to bet the dog. Theyre very close in rankings and theyre records on carpet are similar. Both players have had the odd decent result lately without doing anything spectacular, and I think the value move is playing whoever is the dog if you want to bet on that match.
One match where there looks to be a little value is the Ollie Rochus/Tipsarevic match. At the moment Tipsarevis is +166 at Pinny and might be worth something small there. He leads Ollie 2-1 head to head, and beat him 6-2,6-0 a little over 3 weeks ago in a challenger in France ( and ended up winning the tourny ). After that challenger he had a pretty good week in Moscow where he made the quarters and lost to safin in 3 sets. He has played two qualie matches already and will have a good idea of how the court is playing, and he could be a little value if youre looking at dogs.
No matches stand out to me tonight, hopefully there will be some value or easier matches to disect later in the tourny like last week.
I 'think' the monies flowing on Llodra is due to his form in qualies. Servign out of skin;
Vs Sidorenko-- won 95% of first serves (8 aces) and 92% of second serves!!
Vs Fish- won 6-2,6-4 he won 79% of first sevres and 9 aces
he's also playing on home soil. He also took in form Clement to 7-6 in the 3rd last week. Verdasco has lost his last 4 matches.
.........Verdasco is the better player tho. Got to have some balls to put your hard erned money on Llodra, lol.
Another week for a carpet tourney. Look for attackign players, suits this surface ideally. Federer pulled out, this tourney is wide Open
Two spots remain for Shanghui, LOTS of pressure on-Nalbandian, Ancic, F Gonzalez, Robredo and J Blake.
Vs Sidorenko-- won 95% of first serves (8 aces) and 92% of second serves!!
Vs Fish- won 6-2,6-4 he won 79% of first sevres and 9 aces
he's also playing on home soil. He also took in form Clement to 7-6 in the 3rd last week. Verdasco has lost his last 4 matches.
.........Verdasco is the better player tho. Got to have some balls to put your hard erned money on Llodra, lol.
Another week for a carpet tourney. Look for attackign players, suits this surface ideally. Federer pulled out, this tourney is wide Open
Two spots remain for Shanghui, LOTS of pressure on-Nalbandian, Ancic, F Gonzalez, Robredo and J Blake.
Late money on Olie now....
<TABLE id=tblPropFut onmouseover="changeto(event, '#F6C88F')" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#EEEEEE')" cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b4><TD width="15%">Mon 10/30</TD><TD colSpan=2>O. Rochus vs J. Tipsarevic</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>04:05 AM</TD><TD class=MBB>35 O. Rochus</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">-176</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"> </TD><TD class=MBB>36 J. Tipsarevic</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+166</TD>
<TABLE id=tblPropFut onmouseover="changeto(event, '#F6C88F')" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#EEEEEE')" cellSpacing=3 cellPadding=0 width="100%" bgColor=#ffffff border=0><TBODY><TR class=CT3 id=ignore_b4><TD width="15%">Mon 10/30</TD><TD colSpan=2>O. Rochus vs J. Tipsarevic</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD>04:05 AM</TD><TD class=MBB>35 O. Rochus</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">-176</TD></TR><TR class=MBB><TD width="15%"> </TD><TD class=MBB>36 J. Tipsarevic</TD><TD class=MBB width="25%">+166</TD>
Definitely some big matches coming up for the guys on the cusp of qualifying or trying to qualify for the Masters Cup. A first round loss could cost them hundreds of thousands of dollars. In saying that, we will no doubt have the tradtional glut of withdrawls once the field is fimalised, so those that finish 9th, 10th and 11th should probably get in as alternates.
The money came back for Rochus and it closed where it was 5 hours earlier. Absolutely no money around for Ginepri, none whatsoever. Very tricky tournament this week as its the last week of the season for a lot of the players, and we have to decide which players want to finish with a bang, and which players dont give a frog's fat ass. Being that the tourny is in Paris, it might be wise to look at some of the French players to want to finish off on a high note and pick up a couple of wins in front of their home fans.
Other things I would look at are players rankings, and any points to defend. You may have a couple of players close to career ranking highs and who would like to finish the year ranked at a PB. This could also help with seedings for the Aussie Open in December.
No plays for me tonight, hopefully one or two might emerge later in the week, otherwise my offseason will be starting early.
Goos luck guys.
The money came back for Rochus and it closed where it was 5 hours earlier. Absolutely no money around for Ginepri, none whatsoever. Very tricky tournament this week as its the last week of the season for a lot of the players, and we have to decide which players want to finish with a bang, and which players dont give a frog's fat ass. Being that the tourny is in Paris, it might be wise to look at some of the French players to want to finish off on a high note and pick up a couple of wins in front of their home fans.
Other things I would look at are players rankings, and any points to defend. You may have a couple of players close to career ranking highs and who would like to finish the year ranked at a PB. This could also help with seedings for the Aussie Open in December.
No plays for me tonight, hopefully one or two might emerge later in the week, otherwise my offseason will be starting early.
Goos luck guys.
well, i'm playing this. I want to play it on the games line as well (DEPENDING on what it is, but fuckin 5d doesnt have it up yet and i have to go to work, unreal.) Same shit different day, eh 5d?
A Jidkova (RUS) +285 over A Wozniak (CAN)- purely a price play. Jidkova's year has been a right off due to injury she finally returned in Aug to the WTA and is currently ranked outside the top 300. BUT, she ain't no 300 player, at 29 she's certainly in the decline of her career as '05 marked a dramatic drop in her winning % and a free fall as she hit as high as 51st in the world in Mar '05. 4-6 since returning in Aug, incluing taking Vaidisova to 3 sets...........Wozniak is a Canadian hope who is having a good yr and sits at 125 in the world. She's a hit and miss kind of player, frustrate her and who knows. Hasn't played on the WTA since The US Open, so her form is up in the air. She's on home soil here and the pressure is on...
have a good day all
A Jidkova (RUS) +285 over A Wozniak (CAN)- purely a price play. Jidkova's year has been a right off due to injury she finally returned in Aug to the WTA and is currently ranked outside the top 300. BUT, she ain't no 300 player, at 29 she's certainly in the decline of her career as '05 marked a dramatic drop in her winning % and a free fall as she hit as high as 51st in the world in Mar '05. 4-6 since returning in Aug, incluing taking Vaidisova to 3 sets...........Wozniak is a Canadian hope who is having a good yr and sits at 125 in the world. She's a hit and miss kind of player, frustrate her and who knows. Hasn't played on the WTA since The US Open, so her form is up in the air. She's on home soil here and the pressure is on...
have a good day all
